Predicting random numbers lottery
Published: 13:07 GMT, 20 March 2014 | Updated: 18:09 GMT, 20 March 2014
A Brazilian mathematician claims it is possible to predict the results of a lottery draw by applying complicated maths and probability theories.
Renato Gianella has found it is entirely possible to predict numbers which are more likely to appear than others, by following the same behaviour patterns as predicted by the Law of Large Numbers.
His study called The Geometry of Chance: Lotto Numbers Follow a Predicted Pattern, finds not all combinations of numbers have the same probability of occurring – so in short, it is possible to predict patterns of numbers with a greater chance of being drawn.
The mathematician behind the study has created a website which uses colour patterns to show number combinations which are more likely to win the lottery based on previous draws in 20 lotteries from around the world – but you may need more than GCSE maths to decipher the code
The study claims that there is a pattern which is applicable in all lotteries around the world, which can be worked out using a complicated coloured template.
Mr Gianella said ‘Lottery should no longer be seeing as a form of a gambling but a true representation of the probabilistic theory and the Law of Large Numbers.’
It isn’t however as simple as being able to pick the six most likely numbers to win the National Lottery, it is however possible to pick several combinations of numbers which are more likely to be drawn based on probability.
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The mathematician has a website www.lotorainbow.com.br/en/default.asp which allows people to view the likelihood of different numbers being drawn in 20 different lotteries around the world – but readers may need a maths degree themselves to understand it.
The maths behind the theory is based on previous draws and patterns which arise from them – previous draws dictate the future probability of certain number being drawn.
Combinations of certain numbers are more likely to win than others according to probability. In short not all combinations of numbers have an equal chance of being drawn – but it is still highly difficult to predict actual winning combinations
Lottery probability – how it works
If you toss a coin you have a one in two chance of getting a head but you might not get one at all. If you toss the coin many times you’re going to move more towards a 50/50 split of heads or tails (i.e. it’ll look more like the probability you’ve been given).
Combinations of certain numbers are more likely to win than others. So it’s about looking at the choices you’ve made as a whole rather than the individual numbers.
Rather than saying there are 12.271.512 different possible combinations Gianella reduced it to 210 coloured templates, which represent all combinations. He’s then worked out the likelihood of getting each of these combinations.
For example, If someone were to choose all low numbers (in the 1-9 range) they have a 0.0007% chance of their template coming up as there’s only 84 combinations of using these numbers.
But if they were to choose one across all the different colours (with two purples) they have a 2.6403% chance of their template coming up as there’s 324,000 different combinations that use these numbers.
The study says: ‘The frequentist notion states that the probability of a given event relates to the frequency at which such event is repeated. Additionally, as predicted by the Law of Large Numbers, when an event is repeated many times, the average of the results from all events should be close to the expected result. Thus, games of all kinds in which many repetitions occur (such as lotteries) are ideal labs for the study of probabilities. Now a new study shows that not all combinations of numbers have the same probability of occurring in a lottery draw.
‘The study is based on mathematics and probabilities theories applied to lottery drawings. It adopts a coloured template that determines all the possible combinations of numbers, as established by Pascal’s rule. The adoption of this coloured template provides an easier understanding, and correct identification, of the combinations of numbers with highest probabilities to win. Through experimentation, the method shows that it is possible to detect that the results of a lottery draw follow the same behaviour pattern as predicted by the Law of Large Numbers.
‘For instance, using the method proposed by Gianella, templates built on previous results from a number of lottery games in different countries show that as more draws are performed, the expected result of each template is closer to the observed result, indicating that a pattern for these combinations exists. Thus, the right choice of combinations can greatly increase your chances of picking the winning combination in your next lottery ticket.
‘The method was tested with more than 20 lottery draws all over the world, and in each case it demonstrates that the probability that a given group of combinations (defined according to the coloured template adopted) will occur is not the same for all groups of combinations and that there are groups that show a higher probability to win.’
The study by Brazilian Renato Gianella, is based on mathematics and probability theories applied to lottery drawings. Using a coloured template, Gianella determined all the possible combinations of numbers. He then used the templates to identify numbers that have the highest probabilities to win.